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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 1:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 27 games
67%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
SSS · 27 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 24 games
63%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 22 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
No[o]ne · 21 game
62%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
80%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 20 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
73%

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 50 games
66%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 45 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 43 games
63%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 43 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 35 games
66%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 35 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 32 games
69%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 31 game
74%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
607 picks · 528 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
535 picks · 413 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
486 picks · 242 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
482 picks · 544 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
467 picks · 415 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 1007 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
390 picks · 240 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
388 picks · 920 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 77%
Hero pool strength54% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head6 – 3
Model total62% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:10
PARIVISION 43%Aurora Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 28:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoSatanic
54% · 18 games40% · 216 games
PangolierWs
Pangolier
Puck
PuckNo[o]ne
47% · 626 games60% · 74 games
Faceless VoidNightfall
Faceless Void
Tidehunter
TidehunterSSS
52% · 287 games47% · 392 games
Void SpiritMikoto
Void Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixDukalis
45% · 353 games53% · 453 games
JakiroKaori
Jakiro
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light9Class
53% · 142 games51% · 291 game
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct11:35
PARIVISION 42%Aurora Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 42:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSatanic
48% · 228 games47% · 268 games
UrsaNightfall
Ursa
Bristleback
BristlebackSSS
48% · 286 games50% · 388 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
52% · 378 games58% · 87 games
LargoWs
Largo
Phoenix
PhoenixDukalis
49% · 315 games46% · 419 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light9Class
56% · 117 games49% · 162 games
RubickMira
Rubick
Game 3prediction correct16:49
PARIVISION 42%Aurora Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 58:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSatanic
54% · 157 games49% · 258 games
BeastmasterWs
Beastmaster
Tiny
TinyNo[o]ne
46% · 483 games49% · 171 game
WindrangerNightfall
Windranger
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSSS
47% · 92 games47% · 331 game
PuckMikoto
Puck
Rubick
Rubick9Class
55% · 235 games49% · 306 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDukalis
42% · 151 game66% · 52 games
VenomancerKaori
Venomancer
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 62%
Series resultAurora Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3