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BLAST Slam VIII · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
9Class · 28 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 28 games
93%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Noticed · 28 games
71%
Kez
Kezsignature
Satanic · 23 games
87%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 23 games
74%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 22 games
73%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Dukalis · 20 games
80%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
9Class · 19 games
84%

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 47 games
55%
Windranger
Windranger
Nightfall · 30 games
47%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 28 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 28 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 27 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 23 games
61%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 21 game
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 20 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
525 picks · 308 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
428 picks · 185 bans
52%
Mirana
Mirana
387 picks · 172 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
340 picks · 504 bans
58%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
327 picks · 296 bans
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
314 picks · 311 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
302 picks · 507 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
280 picks · 150 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)82% vs 56%
Hero pool strength66% PARIVISION
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total80% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:3
PARIVISION 67%Aurora Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 27:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSatanic
42% · 150 games47% · 125 games
LifestealerSkiter
Lifestealer
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNo[o]ne
52% · 170 games49% · 102 games
LycanWs
Lycan
Tidehunter
TidehunterNoticed
51% · 242 games59% · 376 games
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Techies
TechiesDukalis
49% · 179 games49% · 265 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Rubick
Rubick9Class
47% · 299 games54% · 172 games
MiranaMira
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct37:27
PARIVISION 68%Aurora Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 43:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSatanic
42% · 108 games58% · 96 games
NecrophosWs
Necrophos
Snapfire
SnapfireNo[o]ne
48% · 279 games55% · 168 games
Nature's ProphetSkiter
Nature's Prophet
Doom
DoomNoticed
48% · 198 games53% · 305 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Rubick
Rubick9Class
47% · 231 game49% · 200 games
EnchantressKaori
Enchantress
Techies
TechiesDukalis
50% · 148 games50% · 195 games
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 80%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2