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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 31 game
77%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 29 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 28 games
61%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 28 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 28 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
No[o]ne · 24 games
71%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 23 games
83%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 22 games
45%

AVULUS

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 35 games
49%
Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 35 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 34 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 30 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 28 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Smiling Knight · 26 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SoNNeikO · 25 games
52%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Smiling Knight · 22 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
483 picks · 708 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
387 picks · 752 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
357 picks · 217 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
352 picks · 358 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
343 picks · 676 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
340 picks · 666 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
320 picks · 431 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
320 picks · 503 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 35%
Hero pool strength60% PARIVISION
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total90% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:9
PARIVISION 77%AVULUS 23%
The model gave 77% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 39:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSatanic
46% · 160 games54% · 327 games
MorphlingSmiling Knight
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierNo[o]ne
46% · 350 games53% · 128 games
BrewmasterXibbe
Brewmaster
Terrorblade
Terrorblade9Class
41% · 178 games52% · 390 games
Dragon KnightMo13ei
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand KingDM
52% · 240 games50% · 248 games
WindrangerdEsire
Windranger
Jakiro
JakiroDukalis
48% · 261 game59% · 96 games
Ancient ApparitionFly
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct31:27
PARIVISION 77%AVULUS 23%
The model gave 77% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 40:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSatanic
51% · 292 games46% · 397 games
TinySmiling Knight
Tiny
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
49% · 370 games50% · 351 game
Dragon KnightMo13ei
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand KingDM
58% · 263 games47% · 300 games
JakiroXibbe
Jakiro
Terrorblade
Terrorblade9Class
44% · 259 games52% · 119 games
WarlockFly
Warlock
Ringmaster
RingmasterDukalis
50% · 124 games54% · 141 game
Earth SpiritdEsire
Earth Spirit
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 90%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2