PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GamerLegionloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARIVISION
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 24 games
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 24 games
Beastmasteroften banned
No[o]ne · 20 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
Slardaroften banned
No[o]ne · 19 games
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 17 games
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
Void Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
GamerLegion
Warlock
Speeed · 22 games
Jakirooften banned
Speeed · 21 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 20 games
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 20 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 20 games
Storm Spiritsignature
RCY · 16 games
Tusk
Bignum · 16 games
Batridersignature
Speeed · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
665 picks · 778 bans
Tiny
546 picks · 525 bans
Tusk
499 picks · 410 bans
Warlock
457 picks · 312 bans
Shadow Demon
416 picks · 1118 bans
Phoenix
393 picks · 314 bans
Puck
392 picks · 801 bans
Mars
391 picks · 599 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% PARIVISION
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total80% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:6
PARIVISION 67%GamerLegion 33%
The model gave 67% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 40:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaSatanic
TerrorbladeGhost
PuckNo[o]ne
Storm SpiritRCY
Leshrac9Class
BristlebackFayde
SlardarSSS
Keeper of the LightSpeeed
OracleDukalis
BaneBignum
Game 2prediction correct43:21
PARIVISION 65%GamerLegion 35%
The model gave 65% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 50:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingSatanic
InvokerRCY
Void SpiritNo[o]ne
BristlebackGhost
NecrophosSSS
AxeFayde
Muerta9Class
RubickBignum
PhoenixDukalis
VenomancerSpeeed
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 80%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2