PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARIVISION
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 27 games
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 24 games
Slardarsignature
No[o]ne · 24 games
Beastmasteroften banned
No[o]ne · 21 game
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 19 games
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 18 games
Void Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 16 games
Heroic
Jakiro
Thiolicor · 35 games
Tusk
Scofield · 28 games
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 24 games
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 22 games
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 21 game
Viperoften banned
TaiLung · 21 game
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 19 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
623 picks · 583 bans
Tiny
505 picks · 407 bans
Tusk
467 picks · 405 bans
Phoenix
440 picks · 482 bans
Hoodwink
424 picks · 205 bans
Warlock
410 picks · 255 bans
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 1037 bans
Puck
383 picks · 876 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% PARIVISION
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total66% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:12
PARIVISION 59%Heroic 41%
The model gave 59% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 34:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerSatanic
TimbersawWisper
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
LunaYuma
Night StalkerSSS
PuckTaiLung
Rubick9Class
HoodwinkThiolicor
PhoenixDukalis
EnchantressKJ
Game 2prediction correct29:6
PARIVISION 58%Heroic 42%
The model gave 58% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 28:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezSatanic
BristlebackTaiLung
InvokerNo[o]ne
Monkey KingYuma
SlardarSSS
MagnusWisper
Leshrac9Class
HoodwinkThiolicor
MiranaDukalis
Shadow DemonKJ
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 66%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2