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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 25 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 24 games
63%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
No[o]ne · 23 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No[o]ne · 21 game
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
80%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 19 games
47%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
41%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 16 games
63%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 59 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 45 games
67%
Warlock
Warlock
Seleri · 37 games
46%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
BOOM · 36 games
56%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
MidOne · 31 game
58%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 30 games
73%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Crystallis · 29 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Seleri · 28 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
629 picks · 618 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
508 picks · 413 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
474 picks · 406 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
428 picks · 451 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
417 picks · 269 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
409 picks · 189 bans
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
396 picks · 1049 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
382 picks · 853 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% PARIVISION
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total79% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:8
PARIVISION 66%MOUZ 34%
The model gave 66% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 26:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezSatanic
52% · 76 games55% · 12 games
Phantom LancerCrystallis
Phantom Lancer
Leshrac
LeshracNo[o]ne
47% · 103 games54% · 88 games
ViperLorenof
Viper
Slardar
SlardarSSS
52% · 172 games49% · 130 games
Sand KingBOOM
Sand King
Monkey King
Monkey King9Class
54% · 105 games55% · 181 game
Phoenixaik
Phoenix
Mirana
MiranaDukalis
40% · 34 games40% · 79 games
Clockwerkyamich
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct30:22
PARIVISION 68%MOUZ 32%
The model gave 68% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 43:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingSatanic
46% · 121 game52% · 189 games
MuertaCrystallis
Muerta
Tidehunter
TidehunterSSS
50% · 206 games54% · 117 games
ViperLorenof
Viper
Invoker
InvokerNo[o]ne
52% · 88 games57% · 252 games
SlardarBOOM
Slardar
Enchantress
Enchantress9Class
44% · 100 games49% · 73 games
Venomanceraik
Venomancer
Phoenix
PhoenixDukalis
50% · 206 games46% · 90 games
Lionyamich
Lion
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 79%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2