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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 23 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 21 game
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
85%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No[o]ne · 16 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 16 games
44%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 16 games
38%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
No[o]ne · 13 games
54%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Riddys · 33 games
61%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 27 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 23 games
57%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 21 game
81%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 20 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 20 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
591 picks · 919 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 421 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
475 picks · 514 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
432 picks · 289 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
414 picks · 1049 bans
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
395 picks · 578 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
388 picks · 566 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
387 picks · 667 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:48
PARIVISION 46%Natus Vincere 54%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 1:11:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezSatanic
47% · 100 games54% · 256 games
Ember SpiritNiku
Ember Spirit
Tinker
TinkerNo[o]ne
47% · 64 games49% · 85 games
Razorgotthejuice
Razor
Mars
MarsSSS
38% · 316 games51% · 271 game
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Techies
Techies9Class
38% · 17 games51% · 21 game
Earth SpiritZayac
Earth Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanDukalis
57% · 247 games60% · 111 games
Ancient ApparitionRiddys
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed32:21
PARIVISION 49%Natus Vincere 51%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 43:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzSatanic
54% · 71 game46% · 106 games
Svengotthejuice
Sven
Largo
LargoSSS
50% · 77 games40% · 162 games
Queen of PainNiku
Queen of Pain
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNo[o]ne
52% · 175 games49% · 220 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Disruptor
DisruptorDukalis
50% · 269 games59% · 63 games
Treant ProtectorZayac
Treant Protector
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit9Class
58% · 23 games45% · 64 games
Ancient ApparitionRiddys
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 52%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2