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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Slardar
Slardarsignature
SSS · 33 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 27 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
No[o]ne · 22 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 22 games
64%
Kez
Kezsignature
Satanic · 22 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dukalis · 21 game
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
80%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 18 games
61%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 31 game
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 22 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 21 game
38%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 21 game
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Riddys · 20 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Niku · 20 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Riddys · 19 games
42%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
pma · 19 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
525 picks · 315 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
493 picks · 583 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
441 picks · 355 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
396 picks · 299 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
388 picks · 211 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
346 picks · 311 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
338 picks · 863 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
333 picks · 850 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% PARIVISION
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total80% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:16
PARIVISION 66%Natus Vincere 34%
The model gave 66% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 39:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidSatanic
59% · 24 games51% · 125 games
Terrorbladegotthejuice
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
47% · 347 games43% · 66 games
InvokerNiku
Invoker
Brewmaster
BrewmasterNoticed
52% · 132 games49% · 119 games
Axepma
Axe
Huskar
Huskar9Class
59% · 72 games45% · 109 games
ClockwerkDaze
Clockwerk
Techies
TechiesDukalis
48% · 40 games51% · 196 games
Shadow DemonRiddys
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct30:9
PARIVISION 68%Natus Vincere 32%
The model gave 68% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 30:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaSatanic
50% · 237 games54% · 191 game
Ursagotthejuice
Ursa
Axe
AxeNoticed
47% · 245 games48% · 199 games
Void SpiritNiku
Void Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierNo[o]ne
44% · 418 games50% · 258 games
Slardarpma
Slardar
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin9Class
48% · 97 games57% · 308 games
HoodwinkDaze
Hoodwink
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernDukalis
47% · 47 games56% · 88 games
SilencerRiddys
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 80%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2