FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:1series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARIVISION
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 26 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 22 games
Storm Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 21 game
Nature's Prophetsignature
Satanic · 18 games
Dark Seersignature
DM · 17 games
Ember Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 17 games
Kunkkasignature
No[o]ne · 17 games
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 17 games
Nigma Galaxy
Tusksignature
GH · 31 game
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 27 games
Elder Titan
GH · 25 games
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 21 game
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 20 games
Doomoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 20 games
Medusaoften banned
Ghost · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
648 picks · 319 bans
Disruptor
557 picks · 570 bans
Hoodwink
411 picks · 216 bans
Puck
407 picks · 1150 bans
Mars
373 picks · 628 bans
Tusk
361 picks · 269 bans
Pugna
356 picks · 398 bans
Warlock
354 picks · 161 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% PARIVISION
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total85% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:18
PARIVISION 70%Nigma Galaxy 30%
The model gave 70% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 37:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeSatanic
Lone DruidGhost
TimbersawDM
SniperSumaiL
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
SlardarMinD_ContRoL
Void Spirit9Class
PugnaTobi
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
LeshracHellscream
Game 2prediction missed24:36
PARIVISION 70%Nigma Galaxy 30%
The model gave 70% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 46:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterNo[o]ne
GyrocopterGhost
KezSatanic
Nature's ProphetSumaiL
UnderlordDM
Bounty HunterHellscream
Void Spirit9Class
LycanMinD_ContRoL
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
DisruptorTobi
Game 3prediction correct42:32
PARIVISION 73%Nigma Galaxy 27%
The model gave 73% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 54:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetNo[o]ne
TinkerSumaiL
TerrorbladeSatanic
Shadow FiendGhost
TimbersawDM
EnigmaMinD_ContRoL
Techies9Class
JakiroTobi
SnapfireDukalis
ClockwerkHellscream
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 85%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3