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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 27 games
67%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
SSS · 27 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 24 games
63%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 22 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
No[o]ne · 21 game
62%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
80%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 20 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dukalis · 17 games
65%

Team Falcons

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 31 game
61%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 30 games
57%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 28 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 26 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
69%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 25 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 23 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
601 picks · 517 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
533 picks · 410 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
487 picks · 541 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
486 picks · 244 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
466 picks · 407 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
392 picks · 911 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 997 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
387 picks · 234 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 47%
Hero pool strength50% PARIVISION
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total53% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:29
PARIVISION 52%Team Falcons 48%
The model gave 52% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 45:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
56% · 224 games50% · 355 games
BeastmasterMalr1ne
Beastmaster
Monkey King
Monkey KingSatanic
51% · 157 games51% · 66 games
AlchemistSkiter
Alchemist
Doom
DoomSSS
56% · 130 games43% · 90 games
ViperATF
Viper
Enchantress
EnchantressDukalis
45% · 155 games46% · 230 games
PhoenixSneyking
Phoenix
Ringmaster
Ringmaster9Class
54% · 250 games47% · 175 games
RubickCr1t-
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct26:27
PARIVISION 49%Team Falcons 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 43:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidSatanic
59% · 44 games53% · 116 games
DoomATF
Doom
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
50% · 269 games49% · 236 games
TinySkiter
Tiny
Necrophos
NecrophosSSS
66% · 10 games49% · 179 games
Void SpiritMalr1ne
Void Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixDukalis
45% · 249 games45% · 140 games
RubickCr1t-
Rubick
Monkey King
Monkey King9Class
51% · 196 games51% · 97 games
SilencerSneyking
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 53%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2