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ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Liquidloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 31 game
77%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 27 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 27 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 27 games
70%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 23 games
83%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 22 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 22 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 22 games
64%

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 40 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 36 games
75%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 31 game
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 30 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 25 games
56%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Nisha · 25 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
miCKe · 24 games
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 23 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
574 picks · 798 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
435 picks · 285 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
433 picks · 826 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
409 picks · 626 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
401 picks · 857 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
377 picks · 318 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 500 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
374 picks · 906 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% PARIVISION
Head-to-head8 – 1
Model total56% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:29
PARIVISION 57%Team Liquid 43%
The model gave 57% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSatanic
42% · 130 games50% · 111 games
Templar AssassinmiCKe
Templar Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey KingNo[o]ne
54% · 208 games46% · 74 games
Leshracbryle-
Leshrac
Sand King
Sand KingDM
52% · 184 games46% · 295 games
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
Beastmaster
Slark
Slark9Class
58% · 37 games51% · 190 games
WindrangerBoxi
Windranger
Jakiro
JakiroDukalis
53% · 235 games52% · 124 games
Elder TitaniNSaNiA
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct24:11
PARIVISION 53%Team Liquid 47%
The model gave 53% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 35:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSatanic
51% · 179 games51% · 285 games
GyrocoptermiCKe
Gyrocopter
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo[o]ne
46% · 350 games51% · 229 games
Storm Spiritbryle-
Storm Spirit
Bristleback
BristlebackDM
51% · 255 games50% · 59 games
TinkeriNSaNiA
Tinker
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light9Class
53% · 105 games56% · 170 games
Sand KingSabeRLight-
Sand King
Ringmaster
RingmasterDukalis
46% · 68 games45% · 214 games
HoodwinkBoxi
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct24:8
PARIVISION 54%Team Liquid 46%
The model gave 54% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 33:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoSatanic
63% · 11 games43% · 117 games
Phantom AssassinmiCKe
Phantom Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo[o]ne
51% · 326 games48% · 97 games
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
Dawnbreaker
Kunkka
KunkkaDM
45% · 58 games48% · 167 games
Storm Spiritbryle-
Storm Spirit
Tinker
Tinker9Class
54% · 73 games56% · 57 games
Keeper of the LightBoxi
Keeper of the Light
Warlock
WarlockDukalis
54% · 144 games47% · 174 games
JakiroiNSaNiA
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 56%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3