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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 30 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 25 games
76%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 23 games
70%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 23 games
83%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 23 games
65%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 22 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 20 games
55%

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 29 games
62%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 28 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 23 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 23 games
83%
Tusk
Tusk
Miposhka · 23 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Satanic · 21 game
57%
Lion
Lion
rue · 21 game
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
501 picks · 660 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
491 picks · 795 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
477 picks · 479 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
449 picks · 550 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
420 picks · 362 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
413 picks · 1001 bans
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
390 picks · 763 bans
56%
Bristleback
Bristleback
388 picks · 910 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 62%
Hero pool strength55% PARIVISION
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total50% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:13
PARIVISION 54%Team Spirit 46%
The model gave 54% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 38:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSatanic
48% · 149 games42% · 84 games
Phantom AssassinYatoro
Phantom Assassin
Sniper
SniperNo[o]ne
62% · 67 games45% · 83 games
UnderlordCollapse
Underlord
Night Stalker
Night StalkerDM
58% · 68 games46% · 176 games
Ember SpiritLarl
Ember Spirit
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenDukalis
54% · 159 games49% · 198 games
Muertarue
Muerta
Tusk
Tusk9Class
54% · 187 games44% · 89 games
JakiroMiposhka
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct38:12
PARIVISION 52%Team Spirit 48%
The model gave 52% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 43:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSatanic
46% · 81 game42% · 124 games
TerrorbladeYatoro
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckNo[o]ne
53% · 158 games44% · 87 games
DawnbreakerCollapse
Dawnbreaker
Night Stalker
Night StalkerDM
52% · 59 games48% · 92 games
WindrangerLarl
Windranger
Leshrac
Leshrac9Class
56% · 95 games55% · 93 games
WeaverMiposhka
Weaver
Warlock
WarlockDukalis
56% · 41 game50% · 38 games
Spirit Breakerrue
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 50%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2