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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 0:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 30 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 27 games
70%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 26 games
69%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 26 games
69%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 23 games
83%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 22 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 22 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 21 game
57%

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muerta
rue · 32 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 29 games
76%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 28 games
61%
Tusk
Tusk
Miposhka · 26 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Satanic · 25 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 23 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 23 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
506 picks · 690 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
425 picks · 694 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
415 picks · 305 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
408 picks · 398 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
371 picks · 849 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
370 picks · 976 bans
58%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
366 picks · 614 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 494 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 72%
Hero pool strength54% PARIVISION
Head-to-head3 – 5
Model total64% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:45
PARIVISION 43%Team Spirit 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 51:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSatanic
50% · 119 games49% · 53 games
Troll WarlordYatoro
Troll Warlord
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
50% · 233 games45% · 292 games
BeastmasterCollapse
Beastmaster
Bristleback
BristlebackDM
54% · 224 games54% · 181 game
Monkey KingLarl
Monkey King
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter9Class
55% · 72 games52% · 188 games
Hoodwinkrue
Hoodwink
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenDukalis
51% · 171 game41% · 105 games
WarlockMiposhka
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct13:33
PARIVISION 42%Team Spirit 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 22:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
UnderlordDM
39% · 67 games52% · 85 games
UrsaYatoro
Ursa
Monkey King
Monkey KingNo[o]ne
53% · 138 games46% · 89 games
LinaLarl
Lina
Spectre
SpectreSatanic
59% · 28 games47% · 125 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light9Class
56% · 47 games53% · 20 games
BaneMiposhka
Bane
Jakiro
JakiroDukalis
50% · 114 games53% · 75 games
Nature's Prophetrue
Nature's Prophet
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 64%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2