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ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 1:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 30 games
77%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 27 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 27 games
70%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 26 games
69%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 23 games
83%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 22 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 22 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 21 game
57%

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muerta
rue · 32 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 29 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 27 games
74%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Satanic · 25 games
64%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 25 games
48%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 23 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 23 games
83%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
558 picks · 793 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
452 picks · 322 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
443 picks · 677 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
428 picks · 779 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
404 picks · 874 bans
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
402 picks · 382 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
386 picks · 528 bans
48%
Magnus
Magnus
384 picks · 1075 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 71%
Hero pool strength52% PARIVISION
Head-to-head3 – 6
Model total59% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:16
PARIVISION 47%Team Spirit 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 41:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSatanic
57% · 139 games47% · 206 games
Dragon KnightYatoro
Dragon Knight
Medusa
MedusaDM
48% · 151 game40% · 12 games
Outworld DestroyerLarl
Outworld Destroyer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
52% · 256 games42% · 98 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Slark
Slark9Class
49% · 43 games53% · 131 game
HoodwinkMiposhka
Hoodwink
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
57% · 45 games49% · 187 games
Tuskrue
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct18:36
PARIVISION 45%Team Spirit 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 49:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinySatanic
47% · 248 games54% · 126 games
Phantom AssassinYatoro
Phantom Assassin
Medusa
MedusaDM
44% · 44 games50% · 87 games
TidehunterCollapse
Tidehunter
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
53% · 162 games58% · 130 games
Sand KingLarl
Sand King
Silencer
SilencerDukalis
47% · 47 games55% · 67 games
Ancient Apparitionrue
Ancient Apparition
Techies
Techies9Class
39% · 20 games44% · 111 games
Elder TitanMiposhka
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2