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BLAST Slam III · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 28 games
82%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 26 games
58%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 26 games
65%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Satanic · 25 games
72%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 24 games
75%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 23 games
74%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 23 games
74%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
No[o]ne · 21 game
62%

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 35 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 31 game
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 29 games
69%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 28 games
79%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 22 games
73%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Yatoro · 22 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Yatoro · 20 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
453 picks · 645 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
442 picks · 427 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
341 picks · 695 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
317 picks · 614 bans
55%
Muerta
Muerta
311 picks · 180 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
303 picks · 599 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
302 picks · 494 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
300 picks · 134 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% PARIVISION
Head-to-head5 – 6
Model total53% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:42
PARIVISION 52%Team Spirit 48%
The model gave 52% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:17:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSatanic
45% · 159 games71% · 12 games
ClinkzYatoro
Clinkz
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNo[o]ne
42% · 89 games47% · 57 games
SlardarCollapse
Slardar
Enigma
EnigmaDM
59% · 69 games49% · 174 games
Ember SpiritLarl
Ember Spirit
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
51% · 82 games48% · 116 games
Ringmasterrue
Ringmaster
Riki
Riki9Class
54% · 41 game53% · 81 game
Elder TitanMiposhka
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct21:14
PARIVISION 53%Team Spirit 47%
The model gave 53% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 33:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSatanic
57% · 164 games50% · 154 games
Templar AssassinYatoro
Templar Assassin
Tiny
TinyNo[o]ne
51% · 305 games43% · 71 game
AbaddonCollapse
Abaddon
Sand King
Sand KingDM
49% · 149 games49% · 306 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Tinker
Tinker9Class
54% · 65 games41% · 105 games
SilencerMiposhka
Silencer
Mirana
MiranaDukalis
63% · 60 games46% · 107 games
Bounty Hunterrue
Bounty Hunter
Game 3prediction missed27:31
PARIVISION 54%Team Spirit 46%
The model gave 54% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 52:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSatanic
54% · 129 games48% · 225 games
GyrocopterYatoro
Gyrocopter
Monkey King
Monkey KingNo[o]ne
51% · 247 games47% · 188 games
Ember SpiritLarl
Ember Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaDM
54% · 124 games48% · 176 games
MagnusCollapse
Magnus
Terrorblade
Terrorblade9Class
47% · 276 games49% · 249 games
JakiroMiposhka
Jakiro
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
50% · 97 games58% · 35 games
Slarkrue
Slark
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 53%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3