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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spiritloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Slardar
Slardarsignature
SSS · 32 games
66%
Kez
Kezsignature
Satanic · 26 games
73%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
9Class · 23 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
No[o]ne · 22 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dukalis · 22 games
64%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 20 games
65%
Tiny
Tiny
Satanic · 20 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 19 games
68%

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 36 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Panto · 23 games
61%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 22 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
rue · 21 game
52%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 21 game
48%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 20 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 20 games
65%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Collapse · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
546 picks · 329 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
477 picks · 571 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
435 picks · 230 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
428 picks · 356 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
359 picks · 489 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
336 picks · 226 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
321 picks · 849 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
317 picks · 816 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total63% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:38
PARIVISION 57%Team Spirit 43%
The model gave 57% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 27:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezSatanic
49% · 187 games51% · 140 games
SnapfireLarl
Snapfire
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNoticed
46% · 226 games49% · 116 games
DoomCollapse
Doom
Invoker
InvokerNo[o]ne
50% · 173 games49% · 62 games
Faceless VoidYatoro
Faceless Void
Lich
LichDukalis
48% · 75 games55% · 240 games
Tusknot me
Tusk
Lion
Lion9Class
49% · 145 games52% · 248 games
Hoodwinkrue
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct14:4
PARIVISION 55%Team Spirit 45%
The model gave 55% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 24:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezSatanic
52% · 130 games53% · 100 games
LargoCollapse
Largo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNoticed
52% · 294 games60% · 62 games
AlchemistYatoro
Alchemist
Viper
ViperNo[o]ne
51% · 95 games47% · 227 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light9Class
52% · 87 games45% · 109 games
Clockwerknot me
Clockwerk
Silencer
SilencerDukalis
36% · 93 games56% · 201 game
Ringmasterrue
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction correct40:16
PARIVISION 57%Team Spirit 43%
The model gave 57% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 35:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezSatanic
47% · 93 games56% · 139 games
DoomYatoro
Doom
Pangolier
PangolierNo[o]ne
46% · 308 games51% · 53 games
SniperLarl
Sniper
Viper
ViperNoticed
49% · 96 games47% · 238 games
SlardarCollapse
Slardar
Marci
Marci9Class
50% · 158 games56% · 221 game
Batridernot me
Batrider
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernDukalis
49% · 45 games49% · 49 games
Lichrue
Lich
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 63%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3