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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5 · BO2
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Tideboundloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 37 games
78%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 29 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 28 games
86%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Satanic · 26 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 22 games
77%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
No[o]ne · 21 game
57%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Dukalis · 21 game
81%
Slark
Slarksignature
9Class · 21 game
81%

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 34 games
76%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 31 game
65%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
shiro · 22 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 21 game
57%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 21 game
48%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
72%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Faith_bian · 16 games
44%
Muerta
Muerta
y` · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
524 picks · 561 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
457 picks · 233 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
440 picks · 486 bans
55%
Jakiro
Jakiro
406 picks · 320 bans
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
383 picks · 826 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
378 picks · 365 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
363 picks · 529 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 537 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 43%
Hero pool strength59% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total85% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:21
PARIVISION 71%Team Tidebound 29%
The model gave 71% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 36:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSatanic
54% · 142 games56% · 112 games
Doomshiro
Doom
Leshrac
LeshracNo[o]ne
49% · 65 games47% · 41 game
DawnbreakerFaith_bian
Dawnbreaker
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDM
46% · 159 games53% · 90 games
Monkey KingNothingToSay
Monkey King
Oracle
OracleDukalis
44% · 51 game52% · 124 games
Dark WillowpLAnet
Dark Willow
Pudge
Pudge9Class
52% · 13 games45% · 63 games
Warlocky`
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct32:23
PARIVISION 73%Team Tidebound 27%
The model gave 73% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 42:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerSatanic
46% · 130 games49% · 130 games
Shadow Fiendshiro
Shadow Fiend
Puck
PuckNo[o]ne
49% · 280 games48% · 414 games
TinyNothingToSay
Tiny
Lycan
LycanDM
47% · 105 games57% · 257 games
BristlebackFaith_bian
Bristleback
Batrider
Batrider9Class
48% · 432 games57% · 132 games
Nyx AssassinpLAnet
Nyx Assassin
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerDukalis
49% · 214 games48% · 228 games
Shadow Demony`
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 85%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2