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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Yandexwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 23 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 21 game
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
85%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 17 games
41%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No[o]ne · 16 games
50%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
No[o]ne · 14 games
57%

Team Yandex

Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 35 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 34 games
76%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Saksa · 26 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 23 games
78%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Watson · 22 games
68%
Axe
Axesignature
Noticed · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
602 picks · 920 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
482 picks · 522 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
482 picks · 424 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
444 picks · 297 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
416 picks · 1069 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
399 picks · 580 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
395 picks · 583 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 673 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Team Yandex
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:19
PARIVISION 52%Team Yandex 48%
The model gave 52% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 48:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSatanic
48% · 263 games55% · 127 games
KezWatson
Kez
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo[o]ne
45% · 375 games50% · 426 games
PuckChira JUNIOR
Puck
Mars
MarsSSS
48% · 410 games54% · 309 games
BristlebackDM
Bristleback
Ringmaster
RingmasterDukalis
43% · 370 games56% · 197 games
ChenMalady
Chen
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker9Class
48% · 94 games52% · 453 games
TinySaksa
Tiny
Game 2prediction missed20:37
PARIVISION 56%Team Yandex 44%
The model gave 56% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 43:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerNo[o]ne
50% · 134 games43% · 286 games
Dragon KnightWatson
Dragon Knight
Clinkz
ClinkzSatanic
62% · 140 games44% · 142 games
KunkkaDM
Kunkka
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
51% · 549 games46% · 160 games
SlardarChira JUNIOR
Slardar
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman9Class
55% · 369 games47% · 227 games
Shadow DemonSaksa
Shadow Demon
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiDukalis
60% · 75 games43% · 452 games
JakiroMalady
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed20:33
PARIVISION 55%Team Yandex 45%
The model gave 55% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 52:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSatanic
57% · 232 games46% · 381 game
WindrangerWatson
Windranger
Slardar
SlardarSSS
49% · 191 game46% · 339 games
Queen of PainChira JUNIOR
Queen of Pain
Viper
ViperNo[o]ne
49% · 91 game54% · 160 games
LargoDM
Largo
Jakiro
JakiroDukalis
50% · 529 games53% · 159 games
DazzleMalady
Dazzle
Tiny
Tiny9Class
44% · 383 games51% · 387 games
Shadow ShamanSaksa
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 57%
Series resultTeam Yandex 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3