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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Slardar
Slardarsignature
SSS · 33 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 26 games
69%
Kez
Kezsignature
Satanic · 23 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 22 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dukalis · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
No[o]ne · 20 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
80%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 19 games
58%

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 32 games
66%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 32 games
72%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 29 games
72%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 29 games
66%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 26 games
69%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 25 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
bzm · 24 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
33 · 23 games
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
508 picks · 302 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
478 picks · 574 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
439 picks · 352 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
409 picks · 314 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
362 picks · 196 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
357 picks · 315 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 844 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
335 picks · 845 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% PARIVISION
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total58% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:10
PARIVISION 52%Tundra Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 30:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinySatanic
43% · 302 games70% · 40 games
Lone DruidPure~
Lone Druid
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
51% · 269 games48% · 316 games
Void Spiritbzm
Void Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordNoticed
44% · 158 games54% · 392 games
Batrider33
Batrider
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light9Class
47% · 77 games51% · 205 games
ClockwerkAri
Clockwerk
Snapfire
SnapfireDukalis
47% · 182 games53% · 35 games
LichWhitemon
Lich
Game 2prediction missed13:47
PARIVISION 56%Tundra Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinySatanic
49% · 374 games47% · 155 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Largo
LargoNoticed
58% · 106 games52% · 213 games
DoomPure~
Doom
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
50% · 277 games47% · 267 games
Tidehunter33
Tidehunter
Rubick
Rubick9Class
51% · 214 games52% · 211 games
ClockwerkAri
Clockwerk
Snapfire
SnapfireDukalis
47% · 190 games46% · 315 games
PhoenixWhitemon
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct44:20
PARIVISION 55%Tundra Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 38:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerSatanic
40% · 18 games52% · 100 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNoticed
54% · 140 games52% · 183 games
DoomPure~
Doom
Pangolier
PangolierNo[o]ne
44% · 260 games49% · 151 game
Tidehunter33
Tidehunter
Enchantress
EnchantressDukalis
49% · 111 games53% · 87 games
TechiesWhitemon
Techies
Rubick
Rubick9Class
53% · 184 games47% · 192 games
Shadow ShamanAri
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 58%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3