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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 0:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 26 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 19 games
84%
Invoker
Invokersignature
No[o]ne · 16 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 16 games
81%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 15 games
40%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
60%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 14 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No[o]ne · 13 games
54%

Xtreme Gaming

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 22 games
68%
Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 22 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 21 game
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 18 games
50%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 16 games
88%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
xNova · 15 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NothingToSay · 15 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
fy · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
628 picks · 994 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
531 picks · 439 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
455 picks · 636 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
453 picks · 491 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
450 picks · 1056 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
440 picks · 280 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
420 picks · 582 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
418 picks · 508 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% PARIVISION
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total50% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:31
PARIVISION 50%Xtreme Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 37:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSatanic
52% · 146 games50% · 337 games
UrsaAme
Ursa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNo[o]ne
48% · 536 games49% · 321 game
Sand KingNothingToSay
Sand King
Phoenix
PhoenixSSS
57% · 217 games43% · 431 game
MarsXxs
Mars
Tiny
Tiny9Class
53% · 546 games50% · 600 games
WarlockxNova
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroDukalis
49% · 786 games50% · 542 games
Ringmasterfy
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed14:30
PARIVISION 51%Xtreme Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 33:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSatanic
54% · 237 games43% · 326 games
BeastmasterAme
Beastmaster
Sand King
Sand KingNo[o]ne
47% · 194 games43% · 325 games
MarsXxs
Mars
Pangolier
PangolierSSS
46% · 357 games56% · 157 games
Primal BeastNothingToSay
Primal Beast
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin9Class
59% · 68 games53% · 149 games
PhoenixxNova
Phoenix
Ringmaster
RingmasterDukalis
47% · 374 games52% · 273 games
Shadow Shamanfy
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 50%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2