BLAST Slam VI. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Paseka Teamloss 0:2series probability
8%92%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Paseka Team
No games played over 6 months.
1w Team
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 33 games
Warlock
kasane · 31 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 30 games
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 29 games
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 25 games
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 21 game
Disruptor
kasane · 20 games
Pugnasignature
kasane · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
594 picks · 622 bans
Tusk
510 picks · 330 bans
Dragon Knight
501 picks · 690 bans
Snapfire
498 picks · 192 bans
Hoodwink
449 picks · 224 bans
Centaur Warrunner
441 picks · 528 bans
Mars
400 picks · 542 bans
Pangolier
385 picks · 545 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total92% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:27
Paseka Team 8%1w Team 92%
The model gave 92% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 19:36.
Game 2prediction correct12:49
Paseka Team 8%1w Team 92%
The model gave 92% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 27:11.
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 92%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2