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CCT Series 5 · BO5
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 1:3
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 1:3
1w Teamwin 3:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 26 games
54%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 21 game
43%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 20 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 18 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 17 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 17 games
59%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 17 games
59%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 16 games
25%

1w Team

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 31 game
52%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 29 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 27 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 26 games
69%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
RESPECT · 26 games
62%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
swedenstrong · 26 games
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
RESPECT · 22 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
499 picks · 683 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
426 picks · 485 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
371 picks · 541 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
357 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
345 picks · 179 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
327 picks · 458 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
320 picks · 649 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
315 picks · 321 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total82% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:32
Passion UA 29%1w Team 71%
The model gave 71% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 36:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingyowaai
40% · 144 games47% · 146 games
Void SpiritSquad1x
Void Spirit
Puck
Puckniche
49% · 158 games54% · 194 games
MagnusMunkushi~
Magnus
Broodmother
BroodmotherBatyuk
48% · 28 games68% · 58 games
Night StalkerCloud
Night Stalker
Lion
LionFernans
48% · 116 games49% · 131 game
Marciswedenstrong
Marci
Tusk
Tuskflacko
45% · 115 games60% · 32 games
Ancient ApparitionRESPECT
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed32:38
Passion UA 29%1w Team 71%
The model gave 71% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Passion UA in 50:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingyowaai
41% · 181 game57% · 157 games
MagnusMunkushi~
Magnus
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritniche
57% · 84 games47% · 193 games
InvokerSquad1x
Invoker
Night Stalker
Night StalkerBatyuk
56% · 15 games57% · 109 games
EnigmaCloud
Enigma
Lion
LionFernans
51% · 153 games42% · 114 games
Marciswedenstrong
Marci
Tusk
Tuskflacko
48% · 184 games53% · 44 games
LichRESPECT
Lich
Game 3prediction correct11:23
Passion UA 33%1w Team 67%
The model gave 67% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 32:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeryowaai
45% · 28 games45% · 322 games
GyrocopterMunkushi~
Gyrocopter
Timbersaw
TimbersawBatyuk
48% · 225 games51% · 213 games
BeastmasterCloud
Beastmaster
Puck
Puckniche
54% · 238 games43% · 142 games
Void SpiritSquad1x
Void Spirit
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkflacko
50% · 257 games48% · 151 game
Magnusswedenstrong
Magnus
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonFernans
60% · 248 games51% · 168 games
PugnaRESPECT
Pugna
Game 4prediction correct8:27
Passion UA 31%1w Team 69%
The model gave 69% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 31:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistyowaai
50% · 212 games51% · 377 games
GyrocopterMunkushi~
Gyrocopter
Timbersaw
TimbersawBatyuk
49% · 313 games53% · 297 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Tiny
Tinyniche
50% · 462 games57% · 174 games
MagnusCloud
Magnus
Muerta
MuertaFernans
44% · 147 games49% · 425 games
Rubickswedenstrong
Rubick
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkflacko
48% · 351 game50% · 212 games
PugnaRESPECT
Pugna
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 82%
Series result1w Team 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4