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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 34 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 23 games
52%
Doom
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 22 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moonlight · 22 games
55%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 20 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 20 games
80%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Moonlight · 18 games
67%
Silencer
Silencersignature
kreker · 18 games
72%

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 30 games
67%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kasane · 25 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 22 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 22 games
73%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 20 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
68%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
kasane · 17 games
47%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
swedenstrong · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
552 picks · 281 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
498 picks · 505 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
373 picks · 1029 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
336 picks · 384 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
327 picks · 159 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
327 picks · 542 bans
54%
Warlock
Warlock
326 picks · 150 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
311 picks · 233 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 6
Model total70% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:36
Passion UA 43%1w Team 57%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 45:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBatyuk
58% · 114 games47% · 320 games
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
Terrorblade
Ursa
UrsaCrystallize
57% · 207 games46% · 167 games
Queen of PainSquad1x
Queen of Pain
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMoonlight
49% · 477 games54% · 309 games
BeastmasterSSS
Beastmaster
Silencer
Silencerkreker
48% · 224 games47% · 354 games
Tuskswedenstrong
Tusk
Ringmaster
RingmasterQBFY
50% · 284 games43% · 156 games
Disruptorkasane
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct21:41
Passion UA 36%1w Team 64%
The model gave 64% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 30:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCrystallize
52% · 200 games47% · 205 games
TimbersawSSS
Timbersaw
Undying
UndyingBatyuk
47% · 116 games43% · 168 games
AbaddonMunkushi~
Abaddon
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMoonlight
53% · 281 game56% · 132 games
LeshracSquad1x
Leshrac
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterQBFY
46% · 78 games62% · 145 games
Chenkasane
Chen
Disruptor
Disruptorkreker
50% · 185 games46% · 210 games
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 70%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2