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CCT Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
4Piratesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 38 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
flacko · 28 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 26 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 24 games
58%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 22 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 22 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 20 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 20 games
45%

4Pirates

Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 13 games
38%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 13 games
54%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 12 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
ariel · 10 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 10 games
60%
Lion
Lionsignature
ariel · 10 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 10 games
40%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
490 picks · 425 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
453 picks · 534 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
446 picks · 555 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
444 picks · 564 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
435 picks · 232 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
421 picks · 785 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
392 picks · 436 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
386 picks · 586 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% 4Pirates
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:42
Passion UA 57%4Pirates 43%
The model gave 57% on Passion UA — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 35:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeBatyuk
50% · 182 games50% · 61 game
SpectreOtaker
Spectre
Tiny
TinyCrystallize
51% · 499 games43% · 367 games
PangolierNattyNarwhal
Pangolier
Magnus
Magnusniche
52% · 259 games54% · 145 games
Enigmaмистер мораль
Enigma
Muerta
MuertaFernans
49% · 266 games46% · 414 games
Batriderariel
Batrider
Lich
Lichkreker
55% · 174 games52% · 393 games
ClockwerkPERDAN4IK
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct39:14
Passion UA 57%4Pirates 43%
The model gave 57% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 37:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCrystallize
59% · 71 game55% · 111 games
UrsaOtaker
Ursa
Tidehunter
TidehunterBatyuk
51% · 81 game47% · 432 games
PangolierNattyNarwhal
Pangolier
Tiny
Tinyniche
50% · 468 games48% · 241 game
Doomмистер мораль
Doom
Muerta
MuertaFernans
45% · 218 games43% · 87 games
Zeusariel
Zeus
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterkreker
52% · 367 games55% · 334 games
ClockwerkPERDAN4IK
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct34:18
Passion UA 57%4Pirates 43%
The model gave 57% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 34:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBatyuk
51% · 290 games47% · 275 games
MorphlingOtaker
Morphling
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCrystallize
54% · 386 games55% · 241 game
Doomмистер мораль
Doom
Earthshaker
Earthshakerniche
52% · 100 games50% · 389 games
TinyNattyNarwhal
Tiny
Muerta
MuertaFernans
48% · 240 games46% · 148 games
Lichariel
Lich
Undying
Undyingkreker
47% · 93 games49% · 56 games
Shadow ShamanPERDAN4IK
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 65%
Series resultPassion UA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3