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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 0:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
4Pirateswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 36 games
56%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 28 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 27 games
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 26 games
46%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 23 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
niche · 23 games
61%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 23 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
flacko · 20 games
55%

4Pirates

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 16 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
ariel · 15 games
47%
Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 14 games
36%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 13 games
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 12 games
42%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 10 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
ariel · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
497 picks · 654 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
473 picks · 405 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
465 picks · 589 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
459 picks · 565 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
444 picks · 515 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 794 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
415 picks · 936 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% Passion UA
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total68% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:19
Passion UA 68%4Pirates 32%
The model gave 68% on Passion UA — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 44:04.
Game 2prediction missed24:30
Passion UA 68%4Pirates 32%
The model gave 68% on Passion UA — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 31:14.
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 68%
Series result4Pirates 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2