European Pro League Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
4Pirateswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Passion UA
Hoodwink
Fernans · 32 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 28 games
Tusk
flacko · 27 games
Batridersignature
Fernans · 25 games
Tinyoften banned
niche · 25 games
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 24 games
Dark Willow
Fernans · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 20 games
4Pirates
Clockwerk
ariel · 17 games
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 17 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 16 games
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 16 games
Muerta
ariel · 15 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 14 games
Shadow Shaman
PERDAN4IK · 14 games
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
566 picks · 798 bans
Muerta
447 picks · 313 bans
Phoenix
432 picks · 672 bans
Phantom Assassin
430 picks · 797 bans
Bristleback
403 picks · 875 bans
Clockwerk
395 picks · 372 bans
Magnus
385 picks · 1060 bans
Pangolier
383 picks · 527 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 49%
Hero pool strength52% Passion UA
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total50% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Passion UA 50%4Pirates 50%
The model gave 50% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates.
Game 2prediction correct
Passion UA 50%4Pirates 50%
The model gave 50% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates.
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 50%
Series result4Pirates 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2