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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
4Piratesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 33 games
70%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Crystallize · 24 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
QBFY · 18 games
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 17 games
41%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Moonlight · 17 games
65%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 17 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 17 games
82%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
QBFY · 16 games
38%

4Pirates

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 32 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 31 game
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 29 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 26 games
62%
Tusk
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 26 games
42%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 22 games
73%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
64%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
381 picks · 347 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 861 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
336 picks · 169 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
294 picks · 339 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 792 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
282 picks · 247 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
280 picks · 126 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
274 picks · 689 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% Passion UA
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total58% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:39
Passion UA 58%4Pirates 42%
The model gave 58% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 34:44.
Game 2prediction missed
Passion UA 58%4Pirates 42%
The model gave 58% on Passion UA — the game was taken by 4Pirates.
Game 3prediction correct
Passion UA 58%4Pirates 42%
The model gave 58% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA.
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 58%
Series resultPassion UA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3