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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
eSpoiledwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 34 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 23 games
52%
Doom
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 22 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moonlight · 22 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 22 games
73%
Silencer
Silencersignature
kreker · 21 game
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 20 games
65%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Crystallize · 19 games
53%

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfire
Wein · 36 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Wein · 25 games
56%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 24 games
58%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 22 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Difference · 21 game
71%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 20 games
40%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 20 games
55%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
ssnovv1 · 19 games
84%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
637 picks · 317 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
551 picks · 558 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 1138 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
400 picks · 206 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
373 picks · 621 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
356 picks · 394 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
356 picks · 273 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
354 picks · 161 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 51%
Hero pool strength52% Passion UA
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total54% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:30
Passion UA 49%eSpoiled 51%
The model gave 51% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 32:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetBatyuk
52% · 170 games48% · 46 games
Anti-Magessnovv1
Anti-Mage
Lifestealer
LifestealerCrystallize
55% · 82 games48% · 185 games
Queen of PainDifference
Queen of Pain
Sand King
Sand KingMoonlight
56% · 164 games46% · 222 games
Snapfireasdekor_r
Snapfire
Jakiro
Jakirokreker
48% · 260 games52% · 274 games
Ringmastermrls
Ringmaster
Pudge
PudgeQBFY
45% · 51 game
Game 2prediction correct20:19
Passion UA 47%eSpoiled 53%
The model gave 53% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 37:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciCrystallize
50% · 154 games57% · 26 games
Juggernautssnovv1
Juggernaut
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMoonlight
51% · 296 games51% · 203 games
Queen of PainDifference
Queen of Pain
Pudge
PudgeBatyuk
51% · 55 games48% · 351 game
Tuskmrls
Tusk
Silencer
Silencerkreker
48% · 175 games47% · 341 game
Jakiroasdekor_r
Jakiro
Ringmaster
RingmasterQBFY
52% · 241 game
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 54%
Series resulteSpoiled 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2