Passion UA vs HAVU Gaming — prediction RRSE# · Dota 2

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RES Regional Series: EU #4 · BO2

result vs prediction

Passion UAwin 2:0

series probability

82%18%

probability at match start · final 2:0

HAVU Gamingloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Ember Spiritoften banned

niche · 9 games

56%

Hoodwinkoften banned

Fernans · 9 games

44%

Batrideroften banned

Fernans · 7 games

14%

Jakiro

Fernans · 7 games

57%

Morphlingoften banned

yowaai · 7 games

29%

Pangolieroften banned

Batyuk · 7 games

57%

Chensignature

flacko · 6 games

83%

Snapfire

Fernans · 6 games

17%

HAVU Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

393 picks · 366 bans

51%

Hoodwink

374 picks · 409 bans

53%

Pangolier

350 picks · 536 bans

48%

Jakiro

343 picks · 256 bans

47%

Phoenix

299 picks · 523 bans

50%

Sven

296 picks · 308 bans

51%

Weaver

292 picks · 653 bans

54%

Ember Spirit

289 picks · 612 bans

50%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength51% HAVU Gaming

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total82% Passion UA

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct33:14

Passion UA 68%HAVU Gaming 32%

The model gave 68% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 35:09.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo

Morphlingyowaai

46% · 61 game48% · 278 games

Dragon KnightMTD