European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Kalmychataloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Passion UA
Tinysignature
QBFY · 33 games
Snapfire
QBFY · 24 games
Jakiro
kreker · 22 games
Leshrac
Moonlight · 22 games
Silencersignature
kreker · 21 game
Ursasignature
Crystallize · 21 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Crystallize · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 20 games
Kalmychata
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
683 picks · 329 bans
Disruptor
558 picks · 591 bans
Hoodwink
454 picks · 233 bans
Puck
382 picks · 1109 bans
Mars
381 picks · 655 bans
Tusk
372 picks · 250 bans
Dragon Knight
341 picks · 347 bans
Warlock
334 picks · 150 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Kalmychata
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total51% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:21
Passion UA 49%Kalmychata 51%
The model gave 51% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Passion UA in 39:29.
Game 2prediction missed59:32
Passion UA 49%Kalmychata 51%
The model gave 51% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Passion UA in 48:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 51%
Series resultPassion UA 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2