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CCT Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:1
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 25 games
52%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 21 game
43%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 20 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 17 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 16 games
44%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 16 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 16 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 16 games
56%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 30 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 22 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 21 game
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 20 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Riddys · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 17 games
47%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
gotthejuice · 16 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
501 picks · 680 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
425 picks · 482 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 547 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
358 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
342 picks · 177 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
330 picks · 451 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
325 picks · 656 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
315 picks · 326 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 70%
Hero pool strength60% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:19
Passion UA 38%Natus Vincere Junior 62%
The model gave 62% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Passion UA in 44:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautyowaai
46% · 47 games50% · 343 games
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
Dragon Knight
Timbersaw
TimbersawBatyuk
51% · 325 games53% · 151 game
InvokerNiku
Invoker
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritniche
47% · 285 games53% · 281 game
Marspma
Mars
Snapfire
SnapfireFernans
51% · 362 games47% · 372 games
RubickDaze
Rubick
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkflacko
51% · 453 games49% · 325 games
PhoenixRiddys
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct16:32
Passion UA 37%Natus Vincere Junior 63%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 42:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingyowaai
47% · 313 games53% · 326 games
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
Dragon Knight
Magnus
MagnusBatyuk
50% · 170 games54% · 265 games
PuckNiku
Puck
Invoker
Invokerniche
50% · 126 games54% · 262 games
Timbersawpma
Timbersaw
Dark Willow
Dark WillowFernans
48% · 257 games47% · 53 games
Shadow ShamanDaze
Shadow Shaman
Clockwerk
Clockwerkflacko
50% · 336 games45% · 296 games
PhoenixRiddys
Phoenix
Game 3prediction missed33:20
Passion UA 34%Natus Vincere Junior 66%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Passion UA in 45:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertayowaai
47% · 168 games48% · 278 games
Morphlinggotthejuice
Morphling
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBatyuk
53% · 226 games52% · 236 games
Timbersawpma
Timbersaw
Invoker
Invokerniche
52% · 189 games52% · 313 games
TinyNiku
Tiny
Clockwerk
Clockwerkflacko
52% · 332 games49% · 286 games
GyrocopterDaze
Gyrocopter
Dark Willow
Dark WillowFernans
45% · 284 games51% · 86 games
Ogre MagiRiddys
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 70%
Series resultPassion UA 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3