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CCT Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 1:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 38 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
flacko · 28 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 27 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
niche · 25 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 24 games
46%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 22 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 22 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
flacko · 20 games
55%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 30 games
63%
Lich
Lichsignature
Riddys · 25 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 23 games
52%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 23 games
74%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 22 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
85%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 20 games
80%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
pma · 20 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
474 picks · 409 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
454 picks · 554 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
444 picks · 547 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
425 picks · 539 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
418 picks · 780 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
412 picks · 440 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
409 picks · 230 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
395 picks · 839 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 69%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total78% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:22
Passion UA 34%Natus Vincere Junior 66%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 36:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCrystallize
50% · 417 games49% · 397 games
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
Dragon Knight
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerBatyuk
50% · 192 games52% · 233 games
PuckNiku
Puck
Earthshaker
Earthshakerniche
56% · 140 games46% · 439 games
Pangolierpma
Pangolier
Dark Willow
Dark WillowFernans
44% · 275 games55% · 247 games
MagnusZayac
Magnus
Clockwerk
Clockwerkkreker
51% · 473 games47% · 181 game
LichRiddys
Lich
Game 2prediction missed49:38
Passion UA 35%Natus Vincere Junior 65%
The model gave 65% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Passion UA in 55:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritniche
52% · 212 games33% · 116 games
Phantom Assassingotthejuice
Phantom Assassin
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCrystallize
50% · 312 games52% · 523 games
Pangolierpma
Pangolier
Muerta
MuertaFernans
49% · 247 games52% · 260 games
Earth SpiritNiku
Earth Spirit
Doom
DoomBatyuk
49% · 199 games51% · 228 games
PugnaRiddys
Pugna
Clockwerk
Clockwerkkreker
55% · 363 games55% · 206 games
Nyx AssassinZayac
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction correct24:30
Passion UA 36%Natus Vincere Junior 64%
The model gave 64% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 41:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawBatyuk
45% · 380 games43% · 269 games
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
Dragon Knight
Bristleback
BristlebackCrystallize
57% · 270 games48% · 202 games
InvokerNiku
Invoker
Void Spirit
Void Spiritniche
44% · 153 games44% · 270 games
Pangolierpma
Pangolier
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinFernans
59% · 181 game57% · 206 games
Shadow DemonZayac
Shadow Demon
Lich
Lichkreker
53% · 183 games50% · 220 games
LionRiddys
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 78%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3