?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 34 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 23 games
52%
Doom
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 22 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moonlight · 22 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 21 game
76%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 20 games
65%
Silencer
Silencersignature
kreker · 19 games
68%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Moonlight · 18 games
67%

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 25 games
48%
Tiny
Tiny
Stormstormer · 22 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 21 game
48%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 20 games
55%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 20 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 18 games
44%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Lelis · 18 games
61%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Daze · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
564 picks · 286 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
505 picks · 507 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
377 picks · 1038 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
336 picks · 388 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
334 picks · 165 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
331 picks · 559 bans
54%
Warlock
Warlock
331 picks · 153 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
317 picks · 237 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% Passion UA
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total54% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:25
Passion UA 46%OG 54%
The model gave 54% on OG — the game was taken by Passion UA in 46:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonCrystallize
51% · 259 games50% · 385 games
TerrorbladeShad
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangolierBatyuk
45% · 403 games48% · 451 game
BeastmasterMikSa`
Beastmaster
Batrider
BatriderMoonlight
47% · 316 games58% · 319 games
Monkey KingStojkov
Monkey King
Jakiro
Jakirokreker
50% · 282 games52% · 325 games
SnapfireDaze
Snapfire
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQBFY
47% · 282 games53% · 62 games
Grimstroken0tail
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed49:31
Passion UA 47%OG 53%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by Passion UA in 50:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierMoonlight
41% · 325 games53% · 209 games
Nature's ProphetStojkov
Nature's Prophet
Venomancer
VenomancerBatyuk
48% · 28 games55% · 159 games
Templar AssassinShad
Templar Assassin
Ursa
UrsaCrystallize
48% · 150 games51% · 98 games
SlardarMikSa`
Slardar
Jakiro
Jakirokreker
43% · 245 games58% · 194 games
Monkey KingDaze
Monkey King
Pudge
PudgeQBFY
55% · 48 games51% · 136 games
Pugnan0tail
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 54%
Series resultPassion UA 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2