CCT Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Palianytsialoss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Passion UA
Hoodwinkoften banned
Fernans · 16 games
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 14 games
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 13 games
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 11 games
Tuskoften banned
Fernans · 10 games
Marsoften banned
Batyuk · 9 games
Palianytsia
Lunasignature
Crystallize · 13 games
Snapfiresignature
QBFY · 13 games
Leshracsignature
QBFY · 10 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
fortniteMan · 9 games
Dark Willow
QBFY · 9 games
Primal Beastsignature
Moonlight · 9 games
Alchemistoften banned
kreker · 8 games
Omniknightsignature
kreker · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
337 picks · 439 bans
Snapfire
332 picks · 264 bans
Enchantress
308 picks · 549 bans
Clockwerk
297 picks · 253 bans
Jakiro
295 picks · 236 bans
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 464 bans
Tusk
287 picks · 394 bans
Windranger
277 picks · 401 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 56%
Hero pool strength62% Palianytsia
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total59% Palianytsia
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:37
Passion UA 41%Palianytsia 59%
The model gave 59% on Palianytsia — the game was taken by Palianytsia in 30:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusayowaai
LunaCrystallize
MarsBatyuk
Dark SeerfortniteMan
Sand Kingniche
Primal BeastMoonlight
Tuskflacko
LeshracQBFY
BatriderFernans
Clockwerkkreker
Game 2prediction missed51:31
Passion UA 41%Palianytsia 59%
The model gave 59% on Palianytsia — the game was taken by Passion UA in 45:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladeyowaai
MorphlingCrystallize
BrewmasterBatyuk
DoomfortniteMan
Pangolierniche
Primal BeastMoonlight
BatriderFernans
LeshracQBFY
Tuskflacko
Omniknightkreker
Game 3prediction missed41:31
Passion UA 41%Palianytsia 59%
The model gave 59% on Palianytsia — the game was taken by Passion UA in 44:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendyowaai
LunaCrystallize
Sand KingBatyuk
BeastmasterfortniteMan
Queen of Painniche
Primal BeastMoonlight
BatriderFernans
LeshracQBFY
Tuskflacko
Clockwerkkreker
Model check result
Model favoritePalianytsia · 59%
Series resultPassion UA 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3