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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Peru Rejectsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 34 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 23 games
52%
Doom
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 22 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moonlight · 22 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 21 game
76%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 20 games
65%
Silencer
Silencersignature
kreker · 20 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 19 games
42%

Peru Rejects

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Michael · 11 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 8 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
payk · 7 games
29%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Frank · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Elmisho · 6 games
67%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
DarkMago · 6 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 6 games
67%
Marci
Marcisignature
Elmisho · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
609 picks · 300 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
528 picks · 529 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
390 picks · 1095 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
364 picks · 191 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
353 picks · 592 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
348 picks · 391 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
346 picks · 156 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
337 picks · 260 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% Passion UA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Peru Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:22
Passion UA 46%Peru Rejects 54%
The model gave 54% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Passion UA in 45:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMoonlight
57% · 236 games45% · 143 games
Queen of PainDarkMago
Queen of Pain
Weaver
WeaverCrystallize
53% · 91 game46% · 176 games
Abaddonpayk
Abaddon
Tidehunter
TidehunterBatyuk
52% · 134 games49% · 112 games
Night StalkerILICH-
Night Stalker
Jakiro
Jakirokreker
47% · 270 games52% · 262 games
TuskMichael
Tusk
Pudge
PudgeQBFY
46% · 57 games52% · 95 games
Shadow DemonMatthew
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed24:16
Passion UA 47%Peru Rejects 53%
The model gave 53% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Passion UA in 36:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMoonlight
55% · 260 games44% · 188 games
Abaddonpayk
Abaddon
Undying
UndyingBatyuk
53% · 196 games41% · 204 games
Queen of PainDarkMago
Queen of Pain
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallize
56% · 319 games52% · 239 games
DawnbreakerILICH-
Dawnbreaker
Dazzle
Dazzlekreker
55% · 121 game47% · 278 games
BatriderMichael
Batrider
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQBFY
49% · 258 games47% · 245 games
DisruptorMatthew
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoritePeru Rejects · 58%
Series resultPassion UA 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2