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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 32 games
69%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Crystallize · 24 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 17 games
41%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 17 games
82%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
QBFY · 16 games
38%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallize · 15 games
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 15 games
73%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Moonlight · 14 games
64%

Pipsqueak+4

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 8 games
75%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Kidaro · 8 games
63%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 8 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
xn丶e · 7 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 6 games
67%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 6 games
83%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Nande · 5 games
60%
Pudge
Pudge
Nande · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
310 picks · 771 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
303 picks · 281 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
270 picks · 172 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
266 picks · 717 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
265 picks · 297 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
260 picks · 248 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
258 picks · 738 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
253 picks · 596 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 68%
Hero pool strength51% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed51:41
Passion UA 44%Pipsqueak+4 56%
The model gave 56% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Passion UA in 1:14:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaCrystallize
44% · 159 games58% · 179 games
MorphlingNande
Morphling
Dazzle
DazzleBatyuk
49% · 62 games54% · 167 games
Earthshakerxn丶e
Earthshaker
Leshrac
LeshracMoonlight
50% · 75 games54% · 97 games
UndyingPalantimos
Undying
Silencer
Silencerkreker
44% · 104 games52% · 109 games
EnchantressKidaro
Enchantress
Tiny
TinyQBFY
46% · 345 games49% · 193 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct17:21
Passion UA 42%Pipsqueak+4 58%
The model gave 58% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 41:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanBatyuk
52% · 75 games49% · 36 games
Faceless VoidNande
Faceless Void
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallize
51% · 182 games49% · 131 game
Queen of Painxn丶e
Queen of Pain
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMoonlight
49% · 91 game44% · 109 games
UndyingPalantimos
Undying
Snapfire
Snapfirekreker
54% · 88 games55% · 103 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonQBFY
50% · 111 games49% · 168 games
Shadow ShamanKaori
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction correct8:26
Passion UA 44%Pipsqueak+4 56%
The model gave 56% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 30:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarBatyuk
57% · 37 games50% · 25 games
Anti-MageNande
Anti-Mage
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerCrystallize
52% · 128 games52% · 128 games
Earthshakerxn丶e
Earthshaker
Leshrac
LeshracMoonlight
43% · 54 games50% · 78 games
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
Centaur Warrunner
Snapfire
SnapfireQBFY
46% · 116 games55% · 88 games
Shadow DemonKaori
Shadow Demon
Bane
Banekreker
56% · 64 games41% · 80 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 63%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3