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European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 1:0
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Runa Teamloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
QBFY · 26 games
58%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Crystallize · 22 games
59%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 15 games
40%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
QBFY · 15 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 13 games
77%
Windranger
Windranger
QBFY · 13 games
31%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallize · 11 games
45%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 11 games
27%

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
42%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 32 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 24 games
46%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 24 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 21 game
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 19 games
74%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Hduo · 18 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
577 picks · 591 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
369 picks · 216 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
369 picks · 423 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
357 picks · 368 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
336 picks · 506 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
326 picks · 696 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
321 picks · 849 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
306 picks · 631 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total64% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Passion UA 36%Runa Team 64%
The model gave 64% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Passion UA.
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 64%
Series resultPassion UA 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1