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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Secretwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 38 games
55%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 28 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 27 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 23 games
57%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 22 games
45%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 22 games
59%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 20 games
75%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
yowaai · 19 games
32%

Team Secret

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 11 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
27%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
423 · 10 games
60%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Kyzko · 9 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 9 games
33%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kyzko · 8 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
xn丶e · 7 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
484 picks · 407 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
450 picks · 579 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
421 picks · 524 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
416 picks · 227 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
412 picks · 696 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
403 picks · 460 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 592 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
355 picks · 932 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% Passion UA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:31
Passion UA 37%Team Secret 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 29:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBatyuk
49% · 229 games45% · 41 game
MeepoParker
Meepo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCrystallize
47% · 259 games55% · 208 games
BristlebackMikSa`
Bristleback
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritniche
56% · 222 games43% · 271 game
Ember Spiritxn丶e
Ember Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFernans
55% · 272 games43% · 108 games
Keeper of the LightThiolicor
Keeper of the Light
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterkreker
56% · 25 games51% · 379 games
ClockwerkPuppey
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct7:29
Passion UA 36%Team Secret 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 26:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallize
44% · 138 games43% · 72 games
Phantom AssassinParker
Phantom Assassin
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritniche
48% · 120 games52% · 253 games
Invokerxn丶e
Invoker
Tiny
TinyBatyuk
49% · 233 games49% · 151 game
UnderlordMikSa`
Underlord
Phoenix
Phoenixkreker
44% · 170 games62% · 166 games
ChenPuppey
Chen
Dark Willow
Dark WillowFernans
49% · 139 games58% · 158 games
Nyx AssassinThiolicor
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 73%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2