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European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TNL DOTAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 22 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
Batyuk · 18 games
61%
Windranger
Windranger
QBFY · 13 games
31%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 12 games
25%
Muerta
Muerta
Fernans · 12 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 11 games
27%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Batyuk · 10 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
QBFY · 10 games
40%

TNL DOTA

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 17 games
53%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Fernans · 16 games
31%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 15 games
47%
Marci
Marcisignature
Fernans · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 12 games
58%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 11 games
45%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 10 games
40%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Norma · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
550 picks · 566 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
417 picks · 419 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
370 picks · 390 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 520 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
327 picks · 721 bans
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
326 picks · 196 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
316 picks · 606 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
304 picks · 442 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% TNL DOTA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Passion UA 43%TNL DOTA 57%
The model gave 57% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA.
Game 2prediction missed
Passion UA 43%TNL DOTA 57%
The model gave 57% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by Passion UA.
Game 3prediction correct
Passion UA 43%TNL DOTA 57%
The model gave 57% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA.
Model check result
Model favoriteTNL DOTA · 57%
Series resultTNL DOTA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3