?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 1:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TNL DOTAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tiny
QBFY · 26 games
58%
Doom
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 19 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 14 games
43%
Windranger
Windranger
QBFY · 13 games
31%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 12 games
83%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 11 games
27%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
QBFY · 11 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Batyuk · 10 games
50%

TNL DOTA

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 19 games
47%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Fernans · 18 games
33%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 16 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 13 games
62%
Marci
Marcisignature
Fernans · 12 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 11 games
45%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
flacko · 11 games
36%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Fernans · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
584 picks · 590 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
383 picks · 377 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
377 picks · 422 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
365 picks · 213 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
343 picks · 510 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
339 picks · 706 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
326 picks · 833 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
316 picks · 634 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Passion UA
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total55% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:30
Passion UA 54%TNL DOTA 46%
The model gave 54% on Passion UA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 41:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonBatyuk
45% · 148 games48% · 80 games
Lunayowaai
Luna
Doom
DoomCrystallize
51% · 270 games53% · 246 games
Ember Spiritdualrazee
Ember Spirit
Leshrac
LeshracMoonlight
51% · 91 game50% · 200 games
DawnbreakerNorma
Dawnbreaker
Pugna
Pugnakreker
53% · 204 games54% · 333 games
BatriderFernans
Batrider
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanQBFY
48% · 263 games44% · 117 games
Undyingflacko
Undying
Game 2prediction correct24:16
Passion UA 55%TNL DOTA 45%
The model gave 55% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 36:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMoonlight
50% · 133 games47% · 174 games
Marciyowaai
Marci
Doom
DoomCrystallize
55% · 157 games53% · 135 games
Invokerdualrazee
Invoker
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBatyuk
48% · 141 game37% · 106 games
AxeNorma
Axe
Dazzle
Dazzlekreker
44% · 46 games58% · 110 games
Chenflacko
Chen
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanQBFY
51% · 181 game55% · 133 games
WindrangerFernans
Windranger
Game 3prediction missed24:29
Passion UA 55%TNL DOTA 45%
The model gave 55% on Passion UA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 38:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendCrystallize
44% · 126 games52% · 293 games
Doomyowaai
Doom
Abaddon
AbaddonBatyuk
44% · 142 games55% · 98 games
Leshracdualrazee
Leshrac
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMoonlight
54% · 226 games61% · 60 games
DazzleNorma
Dazzle
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanQBFY
46% · 239 games46% · 249 games
Warlockflacko
Warlock
Phoenix
Phoenixkreker
49% · 197 games51% · 230 games
MarciFernans
Marci
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 55%
Series resultTNL DOTA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3