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European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 35 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 28 games
50%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 28 games
43%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 22 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 22 games
55%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 22 games
59%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 18 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 18 games
44%

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
DaaD- · 18 games
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 15 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 14 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 13 games
31%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
LeBronDota · 12 games
58%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Nefrit · 12 games
67%
Lich
Lichsignature
LeBronDota · 10 games
70%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Stojkov · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
439 picks · 523 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
438 picks · 534 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
380 picks · 569 bans
46%
Muerta
Muerta
367 picks · 283 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
362 picks · 401 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
347 picks · 172 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
333 picks · 727 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
319 picks · 144 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total52% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Passion UA 52%Zero Tenacity 48%
The model gave 52% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA.
Game 2prediction missed
Passion UA 52%Zero Tenacity 48%
The model gave 52% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Game 3prediction missed
Passion UA 52%Zero Tenacity 48%
The model gave 52% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 52%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3