The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Penguins Squadloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MMAMUTEROSwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Penguins Squad
No games played over 6 months.
MAMUTEROS
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
480 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
452 picks · 742 bans
Centaur Warrunner
427 picks · 625 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 410 bans
Batrider
404 picks · 744 bans
Rubick
379 picks · 164 bans
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1025 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 730 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Penguins Squad
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% MAMUTEROS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:8
Penguins Squad 40%MAMUTEROS 60%
The model gave 60% on MAMUTEROS — the game was taken by MAMUTEROS in 27:58.
Game 2prediction correct5:26
Penguins Squad 40%MAMUTEROS 60%
The model gave 60% on MAMUTEROS — the game was taken by MAMUTEROS in 18:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteMAMUTEROS · 60%
Series resultMAMUTEROS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2