Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Penguins Squadloss 0:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Sand King Gomezwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Penguins Squad
Spirit Breakersignature
Crawler · 6 games
Tusk
Ifrit · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Rabish · 4 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Satoshi- · 4 games
Rubick
Crawler · 3 games
Silencer
Ifrit · 3 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Ifrit · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Satoshi- · 2 games
Sand King Gomez
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
790 picks · 530 bans
Tiny
560 picks · 404 bans
Tusk
537 picks · 438 bans
Treant Protector
530 picks · 572 bans
Nature's Prophet
430 picks · 706 bans
Snapfire
402 picks · 294 bans
Death Prophet
398 picks · 782 bans
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 830 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% Sand King Gomez
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Penguins Squad
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Penguins Squad 58%Sand King Gomez 42%
The model gave 58% on Penguins Squad — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez.
Model check result
Model favoritePenguins Squad · 58%
Series resultSand King Gomez 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1