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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Penguins Squadloss 1:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Wojtekwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Penguins Squad

Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Crawler · 6 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Ifrit · 5 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Rabish · 4 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Satoshi- · 4 games
25%
Rubick
Rubick
Crawler · 3 games
0%
Silencer
Silencer
Ifrit · 3 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Ifrit · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Satoshi- · 2 games
100%

Wojtek

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
787 picks · 545 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
568 picks · 397 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
526 picks · 569 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
523 picks · 441 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
442 picks · 723 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
412 picks · 797 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
406 picks · 293 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
362 picks · 850 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Wojtek
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Wojtek
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:35
Penguins Squad 40%Wojtek 60%
The model gave 60% on Wojtek — the game was taken by Wojtek in 37:17.
Game 2prediction missed37:14
Penguins Squad 40%Wojtek 60%
The model gave 60% on Wojtek — the game was taken by Penguins Squad in 32:57.
Game 3prediction correct32:42
Penguins Squad 40%Wojtek 60%
The model gave 60% on Wojtek — the game was taken by Wojtek in 41:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteWojtek · 60%
Series resultWojtek 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3