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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Perrito Panzonloss 0:2
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Perrito Panzon

Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
MoOz · 5 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenix
MoOz · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
PiPi · 4 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
PiPi · 4 games
25%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Frank · 4 games
75%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
PiPi · 3 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Elmisho · 3 games
33%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
K1 · 3 games
67%

Team Tidebound

Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
y` · 19 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
shiro · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 12 games
33%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Faith_bian · 12 games
58%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
pLAnet · 11 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 11 games
64%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
shiro · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
689 picks · 332 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
568 picks · 605 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
468 picks · 247 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 667 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
391 picks · 1128 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
386 picks · 247 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 362 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
338 picks · 152 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:25
Perrito Panzon 32%Team Tidebound 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 35:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonK1
53% · 258 games48% · 29 games
RazorEcho
Razor
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPiPi
52% · 414 games55% · 189 games
Marcishiro
Marci
Slardar
SlardarFrank
53% · 150 games45% · 363 games
Pangolierniu
Pangolier
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeElmisho
53% · 60 games49% · 331 game
Jakiroy`
Jakiro
Disruptor
DisruptorMoOz
49% · 229 games45% · 199 games
Shadow DemonpLAnet
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct11:31
Perrito Panzon 30%Team Tidebound 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 31:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFrank
46% · 353 games56% · 343 games
Bristlebackshiro
Bristleback
Lifestealer
LifestealerK1
51% · 109 games57% · 293 games
Nature's ProphetEcho
Nature's Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPiPi
47% · 326 games53% · 201 game
Tidehunterniu
Tidehunter
Techies
TechiesElmisho
43% · 24 games48% · 124 games
Void SpiritpLAnet
Void Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroMoOz
46% · 333 games49% · 184 games
Disruptory`
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 83%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2