PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Perro Negrowin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Blade breakersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Perro Negro
Gyrocopteroften banned
Wits · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
Mjz · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
kendallx · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
kendallx · 1 game
Chenoften banned
Mjz · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
Mjz · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
kendallx · 1 game
Blade breakers
Marsoften banned
Cara · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
Accel · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 2 games
Ogre Magi
FeelinG · 2 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Cara · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
412 picks · 534 bans
Muerta
404 picks · 333 bans
Tusk
367 picks · 386 bans
Lion
353 picks · 174 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 581 bans
Batrider
349 picks · 430 bans
Beastmaster
336 picks · 791 bans
Gyrocopter
324 picks · 490 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 36%
Hero pool strength53% Perro Negro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Perro Negro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Perro Negro 72%Blade breakers 28%
The model gave 72% on Perro Negro — the game was taken by Perro Negro.
Game 2prediction correct
Perro Negro 72%Blade breakers 28%
The model gave 72% on Perro Negro — the game was taken by Perro Negro.
Model check result
Model favoritePerro Negro · 72%
Series resultPerro Negro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2