DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Peru Rejectswin 3:1series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Heroicloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Peru Rejects
Snapfire
Michael · 12 games
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 11 games
Clockwerk
Michael · 10 games
Disruptor
Elmisho · 10 games
Jakirooften banned
Elmisho · 10 games
Queen of Painoften banned
DarkMago · 10 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Matthew · 10 games
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 9 games
Heroic
Tusk
Scofield · 24 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 21 game
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 17 games
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 16 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Yuma · 16 games
Jakirooften banned
KJ · 16 games
Abaddonoften banned
Yuma · 15 games
Bane
KJ · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
563 picks · 737 bans
Tusk
507 picks · 355 bans
Dragon Knight
481 picks · 650 bans
Centaur Warrunner
447 picks · 552 bans
Shadow Demon
376 picks · 629 bans
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 542 bans
Snapfire
372 picks · 126 bans
Hoodwink
369 picks · 180 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Heroic
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total80% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:29
Peru Rejects 32%Heroic 68%
The model gave 68% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 40:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaParker
RazorYuma
Storm SpiritDarkMago
PuckWisper
TidehunterFrank
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
Shadow DemonElmisho
Ogre MagiKJ
ClockwerkScofield
JakiroThiolicor
Game 2prediction missed41:6
Peru Rejects 35%Heroic 65%
The model gave 65% on Heroic — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 29:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendParker
WindrangerYuma
SlardarDarkMago
Storm SpiritWisper
Night StalkerFrank
AxeDavai
JakiroElmisho
Skywrath MageThiolicor
MarciScofield
Shadow DemonKJ
Game 3prediction missed31:33
Peru Rejects 34%Heroic 66%
The model gave 66% on Heroic — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 42:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingParker
HuskarWisper
LeshracDarkMago
Anti-MageYuma
Centaur WarrunnerFrank
Ember SpiritDavai
TinyScofield
MuertaThiolicor
Ancient ApparitionElmisho
JakiroKJ
Game 4prediction missed36:14
Peru Rejects 32%Heroic 68%
The model gave 68% on Heroic — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 23:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainParker
Troll WarlordYuma
SniperDarkMago
HuskarWisper
Night StalkerFrank
TimbersawDavai
JakiroElmisho
Shadow ShamanThiolicor
MarciScofield
TuskKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 80%
Series resultPeru Rejects 3:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4