ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Peru Rejectswin 3:0series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Heroicloss 0:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Peru Rejects
Jakirooften banned
Elmisho · 14 games
Ember Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 13 games
Clockwerk
Michael · 12 games
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 12 games
Queen of Painoften banned
DarkMago · 12 games
Snapfire
Michael · 12 games
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 10 games
Disruptor
Elmisho · 10 games
Heroic
Tusk
Scofield · 26 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 22 games
Jakirooften banned
KJ · 22 games
Enigmaoften banned
Wisper · 17 games
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 17 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Yuma · 16 games
Leshracsignature
Wisper · 16 games
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
547 picks · 819 bans
Tusk
510 picks · 368 bans
Dragon Knight
472 picks · 644 bans
Centaur Warrunner
457 picks · 576 bans
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 741 bans
Gyrocopter
356 picks · 577 bans
Mars
343 picks · 473 bans
Ember Spirit
338 picks · 536 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 49%
Hero pool strength52% Heroic
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total64% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:14
Peru Rejects 43%Heroic 57%
The model gave 57% on Heroic — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 34:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinParker
KezYuma
BristlebackFrank
LeshracTaiLung
ViperDarkMago
MarsWisper
Nyx AssassinScofield
TuskKJ
RingmasterElmisho
JakiroThiolicor
Game 2prediction missed36:40
Peru Rejects 41%Heroic 59%
The model gave 59% on Heroic — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 42:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaParker
RazorYuma
LeshracDarkMago
UnderlordWisper
Queen of PainFrank
Ember SpiritTaiLung
Nyx AssassinScofield
Treant ProtectorKJ
BatriderElmisho
Shadow ShamanThiolicor
Game 3prediction missed26:39
Peru Rejects 41%Heroic 59%
The model gave 59% on Heroic — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 53:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterParker
WindrangerYuma
Centaur WarrunnerFrank
UnderlordWisper
TinyDarkMago
Ember SpiritTaiLung
ClockwerkScofield
Shadow ShamanThiolicor
JakiroElmisho
BaneKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 64%
Series resultPeru Rejects 3:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3