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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Peru Rejectsloss 0:3
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Heroicwin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Peru Rejects

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Elmisho · 16 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 14 games
64%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
DarkMago · 14 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Scofield · 13 games
54%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 12 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 12 games
42%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Michael · 12 games
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Parker · 11 games
55%

Heroic

Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 29 games
45%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
KJ · 25 games
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 23 games
70%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 20 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Wisper · 18 games
67%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 18 games
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Yuma · 17 games
82%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 17 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
569 picks · 917 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
537 picks · 405 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
488 picks · 654 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
487 picks · 626 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
418 picks · 899 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
382 picks · 622 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
368 picks · 515 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
362 picks · 220 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 51%
Hero pool strength51% Heroic
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total55% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:29
Peru Rejects 45%Heroic 55%
The model gave 55% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 31:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverParker
39% · 84 games54% · 61 game
Faceless VoidYuma
Faceless Void
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainDarkMago
41% · 244 games51% · 309 games
BatriderWisper
Batrider
Underlord
UnderlordFrank
49% · 107 games62% · 74 games
RazorTaiLung
Razor
Tiny
TinyScofield
43% · 334 games57% · 391 game
JakiroThiolicor
Jakiro
Clockwerk
ClockwerkElmisho
42% · 121 game66% · 55 games
Treant ProtectorKJ
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct10:16
Peru Rejects 47%Heroic 53%
The model gave 53% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 23:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slardar
SlardarParker
50% · 138 games54% · 177 games
Shadow FiendYuma
Shadow Fiend
Sniper
SniperDarkMago
43% · 71 game54% · 255 games
TidehunterWisper
Tidehunter
Underlord
UnderlordFrank
51% · 96 games51% · 85 games
HuskarTaiLung
Huskar
Warlock
WarlockElmisho
42% · 262 games51% · 288 games
Shadow ShamanThiolicor
Shadow Shaman
Tiny
TinyScofield
41% · 301 game69% · 63 games
Treant ProtectorKJ
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct3:19
Peru Rejects 49%Heroic 51%
The model gave 51% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 15:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Enigma
EnigmaFrank
56% · 81 game48% · 46 games
HuskarTaiLung
Huskar
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendParker
61% · 135 games39% · 120 games
WindrangerYuma
Windranger
Timbersaw
TimbersawDarkMago
50% · 141 game43% · 193 games
MarsWisper
Mars
Marci
MarciScofield
57% · 148 games41% · 35 games
Spirit BreakerThiolicor
Spirit Breaker
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorElmisho
64% · 47 games43% · 158 games
Shadow DemonKJ
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 55%
Series resultHeroic 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3