i-League 2021. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Phoenix Gamingwin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Phoenix Gaming
Elder Titan
zzq · 6 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Molasses · 5 games
Mirana
pLAnet · 5 games
Shadow Shaman
pLAnet · 5 games
Centaur Warrunner
Molasses · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Xwy · 4 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Xwy · 4 games
Aster.Aries
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 8 games
Abaddon
Fantasy · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 7 games
Marsoften banned
生死 · 7 games
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ulu · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
402 picks · 941 bans
Void Spirit
374 picks · 570 bans
Mars
328 picks · 608 bans
Death Prophet
292 picks · 580 bans
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 262 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 171 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 407 bans
Keeper of the Light
239 picks · 541 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Phoenix Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total50% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 50%
Series resultPhoenix Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed